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In a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) on X, the analyst predicts that XRP will potentially reach the $15 mark in this bull run, depending on the alignment of historical price movement patterns . The analysis delves into XRP’s past market cycles, applying percentage-based extrapolations and chart pattern evaluations to predict future price trajectories.
Is an XRP price of $15 realistic?
Bobby A’s analysis juxtaposes XRP’s performance during its 2017 market cycle against its current 2024 trajectory. Since the breakout of the range-high in 2017, marked by a horizontal black dotted line on the chart, initial appreciation of 629%.
In comparison, the asset has appreciated approximately 331% since its breakout high in 2024. Extending further back, from the December 2014 high to the May 2017 peak, approaching the 4.236 Fibonacci extension, XRP has seen a incredible increase of 1,330%.
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Applying the principle of cutting percentage point increases in half, as observed from the initial 2017 surge, Bobby A assumes that XRP’s next surge could result in a 665% increase. This calculation places XRP at around $15.00 near the 4.236 Fibonacci extension level.
“It appears that XRP is halving its percentage point increases over the 2017 market cycle. If asset at around ~$15.00 near its 4.236 extension after a possible 665% increase,” explains Bobby A.
Notably, the analyst also notes the development of a bullish flag pattern, a continuation pattern that typically signals the potential for further upward movement. This bullish flag points to the upper boundary of XRP’s parallel macro channel, estimated to be around the $10.50 price level. “The current bullish flag the asset is forming is pointing to the top of its macro parallel channel near $10.50,” notes Bobby A.
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Another analyst, Bassii (@cryptobassii), responded with a contrasting view focused on fractal analysis. Bassii speculates that the current rally could be shortened by 42%, predicting that the price of XRP will approach $9, followed by a significant decline.
He elaborates on fractal patterns, stating: “This run looks to be 42% short, would take us near $9, then a big drop. But you’re missing out on the last part of the 2017 run, IF (big if) that happens, and we keep the same percentage, we get about $30 after months of accumulation.
Or even $35?
Bassii referred to his previous analysis in which he highlighted the similarities between the 2024 run and the 2017 cycle. In particular, both periods show five weeks of consecutive green candles, albeit with different magnitudes: around 500% in 2024 compared to 1,200% in 2017.
He points out: “2017: 5 weeks of green candles at ~1,200%^, followed by 3 weeks of red candles down 63%. 2024: Also, 5 weeks of green candles up by ~500% (~half of 2017’s run), followed by… (so far) 1 week of red candles by how much? You guessed it… 30% down.” Subsequent correction phases also mirror each other, with XRP experiencing a 30% decline in 2024 versus a 63% decline in 2017, each of roughly halved.
Based on this, Bassii outlines potential future movements based on historical patterns, suggesting that if XRP continues to follow these fractal patterns without significant disruptions, it could accumulate over several months and potentially rise to $30 by September 2025.
Responding to Bassii’s analysis, Bobby A expresses cautious optimism, stating: “Yes, but I’m not sure the final push will come. I’m much more confident about the next one.” Bassii complements this by emphasizing the importance of adhering to fractal patterns and real-time chart developments, adding: “I think it will depend on how closely we follow the fractals and what the chart tells us on the next run. So far it has been followed very closely. The weekly candles of the last 8 weeks have followed each other beat for beat. I’m no moon boy, I know how crazy $30-35 seems. But if we are still following the 2017 run.”
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $2.1581.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com