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According to crypto market analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), a key technical development on the Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) chart could hint at a bullish move if current support levels hold. After about a month of bearish trend, DOGE appears to be recovering from the previous resistance line of this channel, an event that often attracts the attention of traders looking for a recovery.
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On Sunday (January 19), Kevin noted that Dogecoin had been “trading in a descending channel for over a month” and was “currently testing back” the upper limit of the channel. He stressed that it is crucial for DOGE to “maintain this level and rebound,” noting that failure to do so could force a “revaluation” of the chart.
So far, it appears the cryptocurrency is managing to defend its newfound support. DOGE briefly fell to around $0.345 before closing two deep four-hour wick candles above the trend line. Kevin highlighted this “nice bounce from the retest” and its alignment with the major four-hour moving averages, suggesting the potential for a price rally.
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As of this writing, Dogecoin is hovering around the $0.38–$0.39 level, showing resilience to its previous resistance-turned-support level. Kevin noted: “Dogecoin is seeing a nice bounce from the retest of the declining channel that I have been tracking along with its major 4HR moving averages. Very nice.”
Despite Dogecoin’s promising technical setup, Kevin highlighted that altcoins remain highly dependent on Bitcoin’s direction and market dominance. He referenced the ongoing crypto cycle, stating that “we have never been in an altseason” so far in this bull run. According to Kevin, altcoins will not “durably outperform the King” unless BTC dominance falls below the 54.51% threshold and USDT dominance falls below 3.7%.
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He also noted that Bitcoin dominance was approaching 59%, “effectively attacking the macro gold pocket” and potentially threatening the performance of altcoins. If BTC re-establishes its lead above these critical levels of dominance, Kevin believes that the near-term outlook for most altcoins, including Dogecoin, could remain limited, even if their individual charts look constructive.
Another factor adding turbulence to the cryptocurrency market is the recent launch of memecoins by incoming US President Donald Trump. Kevin lamented that in his opinion the cryptocurrency market had been “the healthiest” it had been in four years, highlighting how higher-quality utility coins were gaining traction and how investors seemed to be “fleeing to quality left and right.”
However, he argues that “in just 36 hours,” those close to Trump released a memecoin that derailed this dynamic, triggering renewed meme coin speculation and causing many solid projects to collapse by double-digit percentages. Although he describes this frenzy as a “temporary derailment,” Kevin believes the situation will eventually stabilize: “It may take a few weeks, but I still think we’re in a great position.”
For Dogecoin, the immediate signal to watch is whether it can continue to hold above the retested channel line. A sharp bounce above the $0.40-$0.41 region could strengthen the bull case, especially if broader market conditions remain favorable. On the other hand, any increase in Bitcoin’s dominance – and the possible return of a heightened craze for meme coins – could introduce new headwinds.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.38.
Featured image created with DALLE, chart from TradingView.com