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I wrote yesterday about how the market generally appears largely despite the recent fluctuations.
The concerns of customs tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the profit and inflation season have all weighed over American stocks at different points throughout 2025, but one supply remained fixed: economic growth – at least at the present time – strong enough.
Some economic data points look really strong. Manufacturing with the latest indicators with ISM manufacturers and Empire State Manufacturing are both better than expected.
The PMI came to ISM on Jan is slightly lower than the December number, but it is still above 50.
On the Labor Front, the non -cultivated salary statements were harsh, and the unemployed demands were a little laid down in recent weeks. Unemployment stabilized and moderate wages began. Our labor market, as Powell said, “solid”.
The US GDP Board of Directors of the United States oversees 2.3 % in 2025, a decrease from 2.8 % in 2024. In the world, the non -profit expectation expects 3 % growth of GDP for 2025.
While the American economy is scheduled to start in 2025 a year after a year of strong growth, it is possible that a set of policies proposed to grow and leave inflation high with the progress of the year, which leads the conference’s books in a statement earlier. From this month.
So, what does all this mean? I think this means that the Federal Reserve may be on the right path to achieve the desired soft landing – and this if the data continues to reflect decent economic growth.
The head of the Federal Reserve in Chicago, Austan Golsby, said a few weeks ago that he was still “optimistic” about the soft landing.
Minutes away from the newer FOMC meeting (today issued today) have concerns about the direction of federal policy.
“Continue note the high uncertainty about the range, timing and potential economic effects of potential changes on commercial policies, immigration and financial and organizational policies,” the minutes say.
Some employees indicated that trade and immigration specifically may affect the progress made to reduce inflation.
Many participants also said that it may be appropriate to stop the flow of the public budget or slowing down until Congress reaches the decision of the roof of debt.
It seems that the temporary suspension of interest rate discounts will continue in the short term, unless there are major changes in economic conditions.
“If the conditions of the labor market deteriorate, economic activity may stumble or inflation will return to 2 % more quickly than expected,” the committee members will reduce monetary policy.
In general, the minutes reflect what we have known since the last press conference of Powell: Officials are suspended even much lower inflation trends.
However, the economic data situation is still the same. Once again, unless we see significant declines, the soft landing is not possible.
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