Crypto Rally Or Crash? Powell Just Made July The Make-Or-Break

The president of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on the Capitol Hill on Tuesday left traders at risk with a single binary question: the summer more sensitive to interest over the years ends with a cryptographic breakout or a macro collapse? In a prepared declaration, Powell stressed that “inflation has increased significantly from its maximums in the middle of 2022 but remains in some way high”, adding that the federal committee of the open market is “well positioned to wait to know more about the probable course of the economy before considering any adjustment of our political position”.

Crypto’s fate could be sealed in July

For the markets of cryptocurrencies already oscillating on each shade of the political guide, the message was clear: the next four weeks, collected by the CPI version of 12 July and by the report on the wages of July 19 – will decide whether the July FOMC offers relief or reality control.

Powell: we would expect to see significant effects for tariff inflation June, July August

Powell: if we don’t see it, this would lead to the cut before

– *Walter Bloomberg (@deitaone) June 24, 2025

Powell’s caution is located on top of a rare public division within the Council itself. The governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both appointed to Trump, have openly argued that the price peaks related to the rates are probably “one -off shifts” and therefore should not hinder an early cut, on par as soon as the meeting of 30 July.
Seven of their colleagues do not agree, establishing projections that maintain politics unchanged until December. Powell, for his part, said to the legislators: “I don’t think we must be in a hurry, because the economy is still strong”.

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The markets reacted by flattening the front end of the curve. The two-year treasure yields dropped to 3.806 percent, while the 10-year reference point dropped to 4.285 percent, both minimal that have not been observed since the beginning of May-the testimony and a surprise ceased the fire in the Middle East has loaded a global “rischi-on” offer. However, expectations for July remain finely balanced: CME Fedwatch shows that the traders reduced the probability of a first cut of 25 points based on about 19%.

Crypto exchanged crossed currents rather than the title. Bitcoin, who was crap at $ 99,000 Monday, recovered $ 106,000 by Wednesday morning, reflecting the rebound in actions and currencies with high beta while the dollar collapsed on falling returns. In the meantime, Ethereum detained over $ 2,400, also as Powell’s tone was widely described as a hawk. The wider cryptographic complex moved in sympathy, with BNB giving a hand to $ 644 and Solana stabilized near $ 146.

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Trader veterans on X distilled the stakes. The pseudonym analyst byzarino General wrote: “We have obtained a lot of clarity now. All eyes in the CPI press in July”. Nic di Coinbureau added that July “is at stake – perhaps – but nothing is blocked”, since Powell’s testimony has not brought great surprises.

In the meantime, Jim Bianco commented: “Trump nominated Waller and Bowman are suggesting a July cut. Powell is reiterating” No “. The FOMC meeting in July will see at least two dissidents?”

For now, Powell’s “Watch and Wait” position has purchased four more weeks of option. If the July inflation confirms the downhill trend, the oscillations of the political doors open and the next event for Crypto could turn into a fault full. Otherwise, the accident could arrive as quickly. As Byzarin General said, the market “has clarified”. What has not achieved is comfort.

At the time of the press, Bitcoin exchanged $ 106,892.

First floor image created with Dall.e, graphic designer by tradingview.com