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As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates above the important $100,000 mark, previously a challenging resistance level to overcome, market analysts are closely monitoring its potential for further price gains and the possibility of new highs historians (ATH).
A critical threshold of $109,000 looms in the near future for the market-leading cryptocurrency, but time may be running out as experts warn of an impending bearish market which could emerge within just three months.
Analyst Warns of Impending Bear Market for Bitcoin
Market expert and technical analyst Ali Martinez expressed concern in a recent article posts on social media on X (formerly Twitter), based on historical patterns observed following the Bitcoin Halving events.
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The analyst suggests that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could enter a bearish cycle in about 90 days. This prediction is rooted in the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price movements, particularly during halving years, which have historically been followed by significant corrections.
As further seen in the chart above, Martinez points out that examining the total days of each BTC halving cycle reveals a striking similarity to the previous cycle between 2012 and 2016, which lasted 367 days before entering a market bearish.
As of now, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are 276 days into this cycle, suggesting that a recession may be closer than some investors predict.
Will prices reach $200,000 before the crash?
Additional analysis by Martinez incorporates the Wyckoff method, a technical analysis framework that identifies market cycles.
Second With this method, Bitcoin may be approaching its final step before entering the distribution phase, a period of consolidation before a price drop.
At this stage, Ali Martinez predicts that the BTC price could trade between $140,000 and $200,000 before experiencing a significant drop towards the $100,000 level.
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But despite these conservative forecasts, Martinez also notes that near-term growth potential remains. Draw comparisons to the 2015-2018 cycle, stating that Bitcoin’s price action at this juncture shares striking similarities with that period, which ultimately led to parabolic price increases.
Additionally, the Mayer Multiple, a metric that measures Bitcoin’s overbought conditions, is currently under scrutiny. Historically, the Mayer Multiple has indicated market highs when Bitcoin trades above the 2.4 oscillator.
Currently, this level sits down near $182,000, suggesting Bitcoin still has room to grow before reaching a potential market peak this cycle.
At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading at $102,900, down more than 1.5% over 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com