Bitcoin has skipped over 170% from its launch price of approximately $ 45,000 to about $ 123,000 at the beginning of this month.
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Based on Citi’s reports, the bank presented three scenarios for the place where the price could land by 2025 at the end of the year. These range from a minimum of $ 64,000 in a weak market to a case of $ 199,000 bull if everything is fine.
The flows of the ETF are at the center of the bitcoin phase up
According to analysts Citi, Bitcoin Etf Spots now explain over 40% of recent prices. From their debut, the US ETFs have obtained Bitcoin for about $ 54.66 billion.
That purchasing power contributed to driving BTC from approximately $ 45,000 to $ 123,000 in a few months. The bank’s basic case presupposes other $ 15 billion in Etf afflusted this year. With the relationship that modeled, about $ 4 in price for $ 1 flow, which would add about $ 63,000 to the Bitcoin value.
🚨 Bitcoin could go up to $ 199k by the end of the year, says Citi
Citigroup has released a new prediction that projects Bitcoin to reach $ 135,000 by the end of 2025 in his basic scenario. The bullish case estimates a potential increase of $ 199.000, while the reduced perspective places the … pic.twitter.com/3kp1o8ogsn
– The merchant (@the_tradesman1) July 26, 2025
User growth feeds the effects of the network
Based on data of commercial and metrics on chain, Citi provides for a 20% increase in Bitcoin users active in the next year. That jump for adoption would support about $ 75,000 price force alone.
The idea is simple. More users mean the more hands by retaining and negotiating Bitcoin. This activity tends to make prices less inclined to sudden falls. However, forecasts like this are based on the assumption that new users remain rather than launching coins for quick earnings.
Macroeconomic factors slightly cut the forecasts
The model of Citi factors also in terms of weaker performance in shares and gold, cutting the price of about $ 3,200. This adjustment reflects the opinion that if the spare markets and metal struggle, Bitcoin will not completely disignar from wider risk activities.
At the same time, the growing regulatory approval and the deeper bonds between cryptocurrency and traditional finance should offer some support.
The ETF demand could raise $ 63,000 Bitcoin
In the basic scenario, Citi adds $ 63,000 from ETF flows to $ 75,000 from the growth of users, then subtracts $ 3,200 for macro winds.
That mathematics lands the price at around $ 135,000 in 2025. That figure is only $ 12,000 above the recent $ 123,000 peak. He suggests that Citi sees more advantage but not a manifestation on the run, at least not in the basis of a basic.
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A case of $ 199.000 Toro remains on the table
If the ETFs continue to pay much more than $ 15 billion and the growth of users exceeds 20%, Bitcoin could climb $ 199.000 as part of the Bull of Citi case.
On the contrary, a drop at $ 64,000 is possible if the macro conditions have limited themselves abruptly. On a global level, ETFs now hold around 1.48 million BTCs, for a value of over $ 170 billion, about 7% of the total offer.
That level of institutional support has no precedents. Move the fate of Bitcoin more towards the flows of large money than the pure retail hype.
First floor image from Pexels, TradingView chart