Bitcoin started the fourth quarter of 2025 with a strong event, increasing by over 10% last week, from about $ 109,000 on September 27 to over $ 122,000 today.
But Bitcoin could increase the new maximums of all time if the arrest of the United States government continues, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of the digital resources of Standard Chartered.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s historically positive correlation with the United States treasure prizes, suggesting that cryptocurrency can benefit from prolonged tax uncertainty.
Kendrick observed that during the stress of the prolonged market – conditions that often favor digitally scarce activities – Bitcoin has historically shown a considerable resilience. In this case, prolonged stress derives from the arrest of the United States government.
The forecast of Standard Chartered is now aimed at Bitcoin at $ 135,000 in the short term, with a year -end projection of $ 200,000, reporting a strong trust in the Taken raising potential.
Currently, Bitcoin exchanges about $ 122,200, just shy from maximum August of $ 124,480.
Bitcoin in the balance for an event
The potential for an extended United States government arrest adds another level of uncertainty of the market, often influencing both actions and fixed income tools.
For Bitcoin, these conditions can act as a catalyst, strengthening its role of coverage against traditional market volatility.
Bitcoin has exchanged laterally in recent months, but the liquidity key indicators suggest that a breakout could be close. Global growth of M2, Stablecoin supply trends and Gold-Che Bitcoin gathering has closely traced a delay of 40-day-tits at the top.
JPMorgan analysts also see Bitcoin as underestimated compared to gold, estimating a theoretical rise to $ 165,000 if the “degradation trade” – which invests in activities that cover the risk of Fiat currency – continues.
With September closing about 5% more to $ 114,000, the historical models suggest strong potential for out -of -measure earnings in the fourth quarter, supported by the growing detail and institutional interest for Bitcoin Etfs and custody solutions.
The data show that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, the positive closures of September were followed by events of the fourth quarter on average of over 50%.