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According to a recent post by Cryptoquant QuickTake of the collaborator Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is “still far from a real supply shock”. The analyst has mentioned several on-chain metrics to argue that, despite the decline of the exchange reserves, it is unlikely that the leader cryptocurrency must face a real short-term scarcity.
Bitcoin supply shock? Not yet
From April 21, BTC has been exchanged within a limited interval between $ 91,500 and $ 95,800, offering few signals on its next directional move. While some analysts have repeatedly highlighted a potential supply shock that could guide the much higher Bitcoin price, Aleman’s analysis offers a more cautious perspective.
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According to Aleman, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges (CEXS) have constantly decreased in the last year. In particular, the reserves dropped from 2,942,077 BTC on 11 November, to 2,490,318 BTC at April 28 – marking a reduction of 15.35% in just five months.
In the same period, the capitalization made by Bitcoin – a metric that calculates the total value of BTC based on the price at which the last coin moved – increased from $ 669.32 billion to $ 883.03 billion. This reflects an increase in real capital invested in the Bitcoin network, rather than the only speculation on the market.
Aleman explains that as BTC becomes more “expensive”, a purchase of about 500,000 BTC at current prices could potentially drive the price of the cryptocurrency at $ 130.000– $ 140,000. However, he warns that such a scenario would probably trigger significant sales pressure from miners. Add:
This behavior could counteract the decline of the exchange reserves, since historically, miners tend to sell more as the price increases. So even if the reserves continue to fall, a price wave would probably encourage enough sale to partially compensate for this drop.
The analyst concludes that a real shock of the offer is unlikely in this market cycle unless Bitcoin see a massive influx of capital – enough to push his capitalization made to three or four times his current level.
The technicians indicate the BTC breakout
Despite the low probability of an event based on offer, not everything is lost for the main digital resource. Several technical indicators indicate an imminent bullish Rally for cryptocurrency.
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In particular, the relevant weekly resistance index of Bitcoin (RSI) recently broken A longtime trendy line line, which indicates a potential movement of the moment. This development could help BTC recover the sign of $ 100,000 in the coming weeks.
In addition, recent chain data show that short -term owners are refrain From the sale of their BTC – even if in red – which can signal a growing trust of investors and a potential bullish inversion. At the time of printing, BTC exchanges at $ 94,374, down by 0.4% in the last 24 hours.
First floor image created with UNSPLASH, Cryptoquant and TradingView.com graphics