Main takeaways:
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Bitcoin Coinbase Premium flipped red as BTC price fell below $104,000.
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Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index has reached its lowest point since April, indicating a potential bottoming zone.
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The 200-day EMA support remains crucial as BTC faces the risk of capitulation in the short term.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued its recent decline on Friday, falling to $103,500, sparking a notable shift in on-chain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Indicator, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, turned red on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin tried to find support at around $110,000, supported by steady spot demand from US investors. Coinbase’s premium rose to 0.18, its highest reading since March 2024.
However, as the price failed to hold above $110,000 on Thursday, that confidence has faded in the short term. While the hourly premium turned negative, the daily reading remained slightly positive, suggesting that long-term buying support in the US has not completely disappeared, but is currently under pressure.
Adding to the downward pressure, Bitcoin buyers’ selling volume has risen to over $4 billion, indicating a wave of sell orders in the market. The move coincided with a rejection of BTC near the Short Term Realized (STH) price of $112,370, a key level that is now acting as resistance.
Historically, this level has represented an average cost basis for new buyers, meaning that continued rejection below this level could precipitate a short-term capitulation towards $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin Holds $105K as US Bank Stocks Recover, Trump Truce Lifts Sentiment
Bitcoin reversed its lower structure in March and April
BTC’s current price action closely resembles the lower band of March-April, when sharp intraday wicks cleared away liquidity that had built up over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. The pattern suggests that BTC could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the broader bullish structure, unless it drops decisively below that level.
The Relative Strength Index or RSI also fell to its lowest level, matching April’s low value of 34, after which BTC started to recover on the charts.
The main technical signal to watch is the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMAs), which BTC has held for about six months. In the previous cycle, it maintained this trend from October 2024 to March 2024 before losing it briefly during the consolidation. This time, the trend line held from April to October 2025, with the price likely to lose the trend line in the coming days.
If BTC continues to follow the previous fractal, the market may enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks. In the first quarter, the recovery phase lasted approximately 45-55 days, and it was not until late April that a true bottom was formed. Applying the same timeline suggests that a gradual recovery may not occur until late November or early December.
Cryptocurrency trader Dentoshi echoed this sentiment and said:
“BTC price bottomed around the 3-day EMA over three days in this uptrend, but it took 45 to 96 days to do so.”
Related: ‘Bitcoin bull market is over’, traders say, warning of 50% Bitcoin price collapse
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.