Harvard’s economist Kenneth Rogoff, who declared in 2018 Bitcoin was more likely For Crash at $ 100 compared to the $ 100,000 rally, it is back. He indirectly admitted that he was wrong and outlined the reasons why his forecast failed.
Harvard’s economist breaks the silence on the forecast of Bitcoin missed
In a X postRogoff identified as Harvard’s economist who said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $ 100 of $ 100,000. He then continued to comment on what he missed when he did this forecast. First of all, the economist claimed to be too optimistic about the United States. cryptographic regulation.
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Rogoff, who was the former Economist head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), indicated that the Donald Trump administration followed the regulation of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the wrong way. It was asked why politicians would like to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities, probably with reference to regulations such as the genius actwho have provided regulatory clarity.
It is worth remembering that one of the reasons Harvard’s economist had foreseen That bitcoin was more likely to go to $ 100 was based on its belief that the regulation of the government would unleash lower prices. He had made this prediction when BTC was mistaken to about $ 11,000. Rogoff then said that the top cryptocurrency needed global regulation to repress its use for money recycling.
The former head of the IMF believed that if this regulation had taken away the possibility of recycling money and tax evasion, then Bitcoin’s real use cases For transactions they were very small. As such, it was banking on BTC without any question, which would have increased its price rather than higher.
However, it was not so as the government regulation has only increased Bitcoin demand. The peak cryptocurrency gathered at $ 100,000, a price level Rogoff said it will not reach, for the first time last year last year Donald Trump’s victory. In the meantime, BTC has reached new maximums on the back of regulatory clarity, including his rally to a maximum precedent of all time (ATH) just before the passage of the Genius Act last month.
Further reasons for the non -failure
Harvard’s economist has also declared that he did not appreciate how Bitcoin would behave With Fiat currencies that act as a means of a transaction of choice in the global underground economy of 20 trillion dollars. He also observed that this question puts a floor on its price.
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In addition to being a means of choice of transaction, BTC has also gained the reputation of value shop, which created the demand for it among traditional finance investors (tradfi). These investors have gained Bitcoin exposure mainly through ETFs. It is interesting to note, Harvard recently revealed A share of $ 117 million in the BTC BTC of BTC of BlackRock.
Finally, Rogoff said that he had not anticipated a situation in which the regulators, in particular the regulator in the head, would have been able to peel Keep hundreds of millions Or even billions of dollars in cryptocurrency without consequences, considering the “clear conflict of interest”.
At the time of the drafting, the Bitcoin price is exchanged at around $ 113,600, in the last 24 hours, according to data from Coinmarketcap.
First floor image from Pixabay, TradingView.com graphics