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The Bitcoin price decreased by over -8.8% from Friday, when bybit has undergone the largest cryptocurrency hack in history. The peak digital asset reached an $ 99,493 peak at the end of last week, only to retire to about $ 91,500 at the time of the press, marking a drop of -5.5% from Monday. This recession not only crushes Bitcoin’s attempt to contain over $ 95,000, but also places it on the point of losing its critical negotiation interval of 97 days between $ 91,000 and $ 102,000. In particular, the price of Bitcoin broke under the descending trend channel that has been at stake since 20 January.
What is the future for Bitcoin?
Ari Paul, co-founder and investment director of Blocktower Capital, offered a wide vision on the trajectory of Bitcoin and the wider macroeconomic environment. In an X post, Paul touched the potential for the continuous weakness of the stock market and its KNOCK-ON effect on digital activities: “My market market: actions in 4-15 months of pain (they will guess 9 months) at deflationary government policies (rates and mass layoffs mostly). So is it a political question: the Trump administrator “Capitola” and becomes seriously inflaziona? In the vast majority of similar cases in history the answer was yes, but only a low trust to me at the moment. “
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By shifting attention to cryptocurrency, Paul stressed that while cryptocurrencies can still show short -term correlations with actions, they are intrinsically on different cyclic rhythms: “What does this mean for cryptocurrency? I continue to think that cryptocurrencies and actions are on different cycles rhythms, but this does not deny short -term correlation. At the beginning the alts follow the actions at least (but they are already so much, even against the prices of 2021, they can go below well before the actions.) “
Speaking of Bitcoin, Paul foresees that the cryptocurrency leader “behaves like a mixture of gold and S&P 500”, adding, “if gold remains strong, of what would suggest that Bitcoin would have overperformed the losing actions, but perhaps not a lot. A portrait at ~ $ 73k-$ 77k seems plausible, I would probably add there.
Despite short -term volatility, Paul remains optimistic: “I remain the market for Bull Bull safely not finished, but this seems increasingly different from previous cycles, perhaps substantially more slow and longer. My basic case is that Crypto will guide the general turning point for the inflation of the macro, so perhaps the race to Bull crypto resumes in 6 months and the actions occur in 9. The dates indicated are only the indications of my fortune teller. I don’t put weight on exact times. “
The founder of Bitmex Arthur Hayes also brought X to warn an imminent push downwards. He indicated the mechanics of the funds negotiated in Bitcoin exchange (ETF) and the refereeing of the Futures market as potential driver of increasing sales pressure.
“Bitcoin Goblin Town coming soon: many Ibit owners are hedge fund that have long gone out of CME to earn a greater performance than where they finance, in the short term of the US Treasuries. If that base goes down when BTC falls, these funds will sell Ibit and regain the future CME. These funds are in profit and based are close to the UST yields that relax during the US hours and will make their profit. $ 70,000 I see you Mofo, “he writes.
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In particular, the 10x Research research company has published an analysis on Monday indicating that while the Bitcoin ETFs, led by the Blackrock Ibit product, have obtained 38.6 billion dollars in net affluent from their launch of January 2024, most of This capital may not represent simple bets on the increase in BTC prices, align with the Hayes declaration.
“Although Bitcoin Etfs have attracted 38.6 billion dollars in net affluent from their launch of January 2024, our analysis suggests that only $ 17.5 billion (44%) represent authentic purchases of only long. The majority – 56% – is probably linked to the arbitrage strategies, in which the positions of Futures on the short offset bitcoin offset “, has the company observed.
Before the falling prices in progress, the market technician Tony “The Bull” Severino, warned of impending bitcoin volatility, observing that the daily Bollinger bands were hitting a resentment, a model often followed by a significant price swing : “A decision will be made early in Bitcoin, when the Daily Bollinger bands reach the third most vigilant reading since 2018. At the end of 2018, the Tenuta Record led to a 50% drop in just over a month. In the middle of 2023, Tenuta Record led to a 200% climb in just over 200 days. In which direction releases volatility? “
With Bitcoin that falters just more than $ 91,000 and the market has still returned from the historical hack of Bybit, the market is in a fundamental moment. The graphic signals, the macroeconomic uncertainties and the deforestation of complex trading strategies collectively draw a objected perspective with a possible extension of this collapse to $ 73,000 – $ 77,000 in the coming months.
In the meantime, this must not announce the beginning of the bears market. Chris Burniske, a partner of Placeholder VC, commented through X: “In the middle of 2021: BTC lowered 56%, Eth lowered 61%, Sol lowered 67%, many more 70-80%+. You can find all the reasons why this cycle is different, but the medium bull restoration that we are crossing is not unprecedented. Those who ask for a full bear are missed. “
At the time of the print, BTC exchanged $ 90,537.
First floor image created with Dall.e, graphic designer by tradingview.com