In a wide -ranging conversation, the chief analyst of the Bitcoin Pro Matt Crosby magazine sat with the rational root of the cycle on chain to explore the urgent demand on the minds of many investors: the four -year cycles of Bitcoin are still intact, or is institutional adoption fundamentally that basically alters the rhythm of Bitcoin?
The discussion dives into chain metrics, ETF flows, market psychology and corporate accumulation, all central to understand if the next big Bitcoin move is delayed, dampened or still forward.
Position of the chain market: not yet overheated
According to Rational Root, the Bitcoin market is far from the exhaustion of the cycle.
“We are only like 0.25 … standard deviations above the short -term cost base … the previous cycle … we have reached four standard deviations above …”
This key metric, the average acquisition price of the recent market participants, serves as a proxy for overheated conditions. Root claims that this slight positioning suggests that we are still in bullish territory.
Structured structuring against parabolic hype
Root stressed that the current cycle is forming a much more stable structure than the past ones:
“We saw two of those peaks both with the approval of the ETF and with the elections … a structured channel is being formed … since 2023 … we are somehow set up.”
Matt Crosby observed that the most ordered trend could be a by -product of the institutions, suggesting that this could be a new phase for Bitcoin that suppresses extreme volatility in both directions.
ETF flows: the new whale
Rational Root has closely tracked down the massive question from the ETFs:
“Only the ETFs alone are already like 3.5x … we still have many other sources of demand … Stacking that is happening in the companies of the Bitcoin Treasury …”
This influx is significantly greater than the current daily emission of 450 BTC. The application of the ETF, combined with business fees and long -term owners, has basically moved Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
Human psychology still dominates
Despite the rise of institutional players, the root remains rooted in behavioral models:
“People spoke of elongation/shortening cycles … every cycle … we talked about it in all the previous cycles … it was no different.”
He reiterated that Bitcoin cycles remain guided by collective psychology: Greed, Fear and Fomo. So far, the data of the current cycle seem to remain strictly with those of 2017 and 2021.
Entering the euphoria phase?
Referring to his known Bitcoin spiral graphicsNoticed root:
“In reality we are really approaching that phase of thrill and euphoria … it is very exciting … the next six months will not be boring.”
Historically, this phase precedes market peaks, although Root has been careful not to offer guarantees of timing, citing the potential for institutional influence to lengthen the cycle.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies: cheat code or risk?
On the rise of Bitcoin Treasury companies such as Microstrattegy, Metaplanet and the Blockchain group, shared root:
“It’s really … a bet on Fiat money to go down and bitcoin to go up … basically it’s sustainable.”
He highlighted the strategic use of debt by these companies, exploiting the tastter in Fiat to accumulate Bitcoin. He also dealt with the previous skepticism deriving from the cycle of the 2022 cycle (e.g. Celsius, Blockfi), but now he considers the current players as basically healthy.
Price projections and timing of the cycle
Pressed for a prediction, Rational Root said:
“I always said … between 140 and 240 … I don’t think we’ll go through half a million bitcoins in this cycle.”
He mentioned macro risks and the potential for extended consolidation, but has reiterated that, so far, the current cycle remains within the historically normal boundaries.
Are we entering a new era?
While both root and Crosby recognize the changing nature of the participants in the Bitcoin market, they agree that the mechanics of the basic cycle still apply, for now.
“If everything starts to flash in red … it is probably not a bad opportunity to block some profit.” – Matt Crosby
Added root:
“Take a look at Bitcoin Magazine Pro … I certainly treat you as a colleague … it’s the trip to Bitcoin we are looking for.”
Final word
The structure of the Bitcoin market is evolving, but not radically. While institutional demand, passive flows and corporate accumulation are remodeling the behavior, the emotional core of the cycle remains familiar. Investors should prepare for continuous rise, but also to remain vigilant for excess signs.
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Disclaimer: This article is only for information purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your searches before making any investment decision.