The strategic Bitcoin reserve is now taking shape when Senator Cynthia Lummis shared her vision.
Lummis proposed the US purchase of 200,000 BTC (worth around 20 billion USD at current prices) by 2030.
How realistic is this idea?
Let us unpack the advantages – and pitfalls – of the Lummis proposal.
Wear with me because I will introduce you to a calculated, highly speculative and still simplified view for the future of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
When the ambition hits the mathematical reality
Not every day, a senator on national television says that the government is planning to exchange its official currency for crypto worth billions worth billions.
At current prices, the Bitcoin reserve would be $ 100 billion. The US state debt is over 36 t. Lummis assumes that the reserve will cover 50% of the debts in 20 years or about 18 m (provided that the debts do not increase – what it would probably do).
In order to achieve this, $ BTC would have to reach either 18 million US dollars per token, or the government would have to find creative ways to make profit from it.
The first scenario means an increase of 17,900% compared to the current level. This has been modest compared to BTC’s actual 166,025,905% brush since its introduction, but the market capitalization would bring $ BTC to over 356 t..
The total value of the total money worldwide in USD is only $ 80.
Mathematics does not add up.
20-year outlook: Could Krypto replace national currencies?
A more practical solution would be that the government exhibits investment instruments such as T-BILLS (BTC bills?), Options or Indexed Bonds associated with BTC. Then generate income from the sale of these worldwide to investors.
In any case, the value and the role of $ BTC in the US economy would be solid. And this would probably lead to further depreciation of the dollar.
Could all governments Fiat submit their national currencies in 20 years and accept crypto? Ten years ago, people would call you crazy because you asked that at all, but now it’s pretty plausible.
No country would announce the highly volatile $ Pepe as a national currency, but $ BTC with its reputation of digital gold or stable coins could be practical alternatives to Fiat.
It should be assessed early on whether Lummi’s proposal is absurd or awesome.
But it is certainly an important step towards the mainstream crypto introduction by institutions and governments and could lead to unprecedented heights.
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While 356 t is around a distance, the CEO of Coinbase, the $ BTC Market Capapor, is forecast that of gold – $ 18T – means that a BTC $ 908,000 would cost.
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Last comments
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