Will Crypto Explode in January: Why is Crypto Down Today and Will it Recover in 2025?

Why is crypto down today? Well, not exactly today. But that has been the case for the past few days. Santa Claus gathering be damned!

Cryptocurrency markets are poised for a seismic shift, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi suggesting that 2025 could redefine everything. Bitcoin (BTC).cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke: ; Stroke width: ; }





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It tends to break records.

Meanwhile, expected regulatory reforms could reshape the cryptocurrency landscape in the United States, destabilizing how these assets are traded and secured.

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Betting market, Calci puts the chances of Bitcoin rising to over $125,000 in 2025 at 60%, with Ethereum falling but still likely to exceed $5,000. Polymarket players are holding the line slightly lower but still bullish, giving Bitcoin 50/50 odds of breaking $120,000 by March 2025.

With all-time highs of $108,300 for Bitcoin and $4,720 for Ethereum, these expected milestones could cement their role as heavyweight contenders in the global financial arena.

Why is crypto down today? Bitcoin and Ether are targeting new records

The push into cryptocurrency-based ETFs is fueling bullish momentum. Polymarket odds show a strong chance that US regulators will approve ETFs for XRP (75%), Solana (69%), and Litecoin (51%) by mid-2025, while Dogecoin lags behind at a modest 22%. These ETFs can attract traditional investors with regulatory safety nets, injecting new liquidity and accelerating their adoption throughout the market.

One of the most interesting developments is speculation about A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Kalci cites a 59% chance that the incoming Trump administration will be able to create such a reserve during his presidency — although Polmarket puts more modest odds at 29% of that happening within his first 100 days in office.

If this happens, Bitcoin’s role could develop into something much greater, prompting countries to recognize it as a strategic reserve. It would mark a turning point, making digital assets a legitimate part of formal financial frameworks globally.

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A different look at futures markets

While prediction markets paint a largely optimistic picture, traditional financial instruments such as futures markets are cautious.

Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) expect the spot price of Bitcoin to reach US$98,000 and Ethereum at US$3,500 by March 2025 – falling short of the ambitious targets set by Calci and Polymarket but still reflecting significant growth.

Built on speculation and hedging, futures markets tend to cut through the hype, offering a cushioned view that balances the hype with market realities.

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What’s next for cryptocurrencies in 2025?

Skeptics aside, the cryptocurrency outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, if not the most interesting year ever for Bitcoin. The year 2025 could herald mainstream adoption, evolving financial products, and increased government involvement in cryptocurrencies. For investors, the game is clear – stay informed and educated.

With Bitcoin targeting mid-six digits and new ETFs dominating the narrative, the scene is anything but normal. The year 2025 may rewrite the scenario for digital assets in global finance.

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