The Bitcoin market has long been defined by its apparently immutable four -year cycle, a three -year model of increasing prices followed by a strong correction. However, a seismic change in politics by Washington, led by former president Donald Trump, can break this cycle and inaugurate a new era of prolonged growth for the cryptocurrency industry.
Matt Hugan, Chief Investment Officer of Betwise Asset Management, recently asked an intriguing question: Can Trump’s executive order break the cycle of Crypto? His response, although faded, tilts towards an emphatic YES.
The four -year cycle: a summary
Hougan clarifies his personal belief that Bitcoin’s four -year market cycle is not guided by Bitcoin’s halving events. He says: “People try to connect it to Bitcoin’s” resigned “, but those half are misaltered with the cycle, having occurred in 2016, 2020 and 2024.”
The four -year cycle of Bitcoin was historically led by a mix of feeling of investors, technological discoveries and market dynamics. Typically, a stroke of bulls emerges following a significant catalyst, whether they are improvements in IT infrastructure or institutional adoption, which attracts new capital and fuels. Over time, the financial lever accumulates, excesses and a great event emerge, such as regulatory repressions or financial frauds, warn a brutal correction.
This scheme took place repeatedly: from the first days of the improcity of Mount Gox in 2014 to the boom and to the bust of the ICE of 2017-2018 and, more recently, the delegated crisis of 2022 with the collapse of FTX and three capital of the arrows. However, each winter was followed by an even stronger rebirth, culminating in the last Bitcoin Run Bull Run stimulated by the traditional adoption of Etf Bitcoin in 2024.
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The executive order: a turning point
The fundamental question that Houan explore is whether the recent executive order of Trump, which gives priority to the development of the ecosystem of digital resources in the United States, will interrupt the established cycle. The order, which outlines a clear regulatory framework and even provides for a national escort of digital activities, represents the most bullish position on Bitcoin from any session or former president of the United States.
The implications are profound:
- Regulatory clarity: By eliminating legal uncertainty, the EO opens the way for the institutional capital to flow to Bitcoin on an unprecedented scale.
- Integration of Wall Street: With the sec and financial regulators now pro-Cripto, the main banks can enter space, offering their customers custody, loans and structured Bitcoin products.
- Adoption of the Government: The concept of a national escort of digital activity suggests a future in which the United States treasure could contain Bitcoin as a reserve resource, consolidating its digital gold status.
These developments will not take place during the night, but their cumulative effect could basically alter the Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Unlike previous cycles led by Euphoria to speculative detail, this movement is supported by institutional adoption and regulatory approval, a much more stable basis.
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The end of the Crypto winters?
If the story were to repeat herself, Bitcoin would continue its climb until 2025 before facing a remarkable Pullback in 2026. However, Hugan suggests that this time it could be different. While recognizing the risk of speculative excesses and bubbles led by lever, it claims that the pure institutional adoption scale will prevent the type of prolonged bear markets seen in the past.
This is a crucial distinction. In previous cycles, Bitcoin was missing from a strong base of value -oriented investors. Today, with the ETFs that make it easier for pensions, the hedge fund and sovereign wealth funds to be assigned to Bitcoin, the asset no longer depends more exclusively on the enthusiasm of retail sale. The result? Corrections can still occur, but they will probably be lower and shorter.
What comes later?
Bitcoin has already crossed the sign of $ 100,000 and the projections of the industry leaders, including the Blackrock Larry Fink CEO, suggest that it could reach $ 700,000 in the coming years. If Trump’s policies accelerate institutional adoption, the typical four -year -old model could be replaced by a more traditional growth trajectory of the patrimonial class, so that gold responded at the end of the Gold Standard in the 70s.
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While the risks remain, including unexpected regulatory reversals and excessive lever – the direction of the trip is clear: Bitcoin is becoming a traditional financial resource. If the four -year -old cycle has been guided by the childhood and speculative nature of Bitcoin, its maturation can make these cycles obsolete.
Conclusion
For over a decade, investors have used the four -year cycle as a roadmap for Bitcoin’s market movements. But the executive order of Trump could be the decisive moment that interrupts this model, replacing it with a more sustained and institutional growth phase. While Wall Street, companies and even governments embrace more and more bitcoin, the question is no longer If Crypto Winter will arrive in 2026, but rather If it comes at all.
Disclaimer: This article is intended only for information purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct an in -depth independent research before making investment decisions.