In an October 10 market update, technical analyst Nik Patel (@OstiumLabs) said that Ethereum is approaching a decisive zone where the next few sessions could define whether the advance resumes or a deeper relaxation takes place. With spot ETH trading at around $4,000, Patel anchored his thesis on a narrow group of recovery and invalidation levels on both ETH/USD and ETH/BTC, emphasizing that behavior on a lower time frame must align with a higher time frame to keep the bullish path open.
Key price levels for Ethereum now
On the ETH/USD weekly chart, Patel said the market “collapsed at last week’s August open, but held above the previous weekly low and trendline support,” resulting in an inside week that nevertheless closed “marginally below that major pivot.” The pivot is explicit: “We want to see this pivot at $4,093 recovered immediately and not turn into resistance here on lower timeframes, otherwise we could expect another flow of lows into the 2025 open.”
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If buyers force the recovery, Patel expects last week’s stock to hit a quarterly low: “If we recover $4,093 here, which is what I expect, we should have our quarterly low now and I would like to see $4,400 turn into support for the move higher to all-time highs and beyond.”
He called the weekly invalidation at $3,700, warning that a lower close would put the yearly open under watch as “last-generation support” for the bullish structure; a failure in this case risks “a much larger return to $2,850.” Patel’s baseline scenario remained constructive: “acceptance back above $4,093 next week and then a close above $4,400 for October, leading to new highs as high as $5,000 in early November and a very strong month for ETH.”
The daily reading of ETH/USD ties this long-horizon project to market momentum and structure. Patel noted “exhaustion of momentum towards the lows” followed by a higher low last week, a formation that now needs to be defended. He wants to see the pattern reassert itself with a push above the midrange and a subsequent higher low above the weekly pivot: “We definitely want to see this structure now protected and the price form a higher high above the midrange at $4,352 and then another higher low above $4,093 before a breakout higher and a push to new highs.”
Confirming an impulsive phase, he signaled a trendline breakout, a reversal of the ATH-pegged VWAP into support, and a shift in the RSI regime: “If we get a trendline breakout and price flips the ATH VWAP into support with a daily RSI above 50, I would expect a move to $4,950 very quickly, followed by price discovery in November.” The daily invalidation mirrors the weekly logic: If $4,093 acts as resistance and the market pushes below $3,700, then closes below, “we are absolutely retesting the yearly open,” in his view.
ETH vs. Bitcoin
Against Bitcoin, Patel argues that the relative pair has likely hit its fourth-quarter low. On the ETH/BTC weekly chart, the price rejected at trendline resistance, then returned to the yearly open and held, closing “marginally green” while respecting trendline support from the 2025 lows.
“It is my opinion that the Q4 bottom for the pair is formed here,” he wrote, adding that a retest and break above the descending limit in early November would set the stage for a measured expansion: “acceptance above 0.0417 opens the next step higher to 0.055.” It placed the weekly invalidation at 0.0319.
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The ETH/BTC Daily Map refines these signals into actionable levels. The price “made that low between 0.0319 and the yearly open before rebounding strongly and reclaiming 0.036 as support.” Ideally, 0.036 now serves as a stepping stone; otherwise, Patel allows for a low-rise “above the 0.0319 level before continuing higher.”
The tactical indication would be a nearby supply reversal: “If we can reverse 0.0379 as support recovered here, this would be promising for the idea that a trendline break is imminent, following which I would expect 0.0417 to be cleared and the price to move higher, with minor resistance above that at 0.049 before 0.055.” He also identified a confluence band below: “We have a confluence of support between 0.0293 and 0.0319, so turning that range into resistance would be very bearish for ETH/BTC.”
Overall, Patel’s October 10 plan is based on three synchronizations: ETH/USD must quickly recover and defend $4,093; The $4,400 needs to be converted from the ceiling to the floor to clear the runway towards previous highs and a potential extension of $4,950; and ETH/BTC would need to break above 0.0379 and then 0.0417 to confirm the breadth of relative strength below any dollar-denominated breakout.
The downside is equally clear: the failure to recover $4,093, a weekly close below $3,700 and a consequent loss of the annual opening would validate the risk that, in Patel’s words, Ethereum could “return to $2,850”.
At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $3,872.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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